Ballmer was interviewed at the University of Washington.
When asked about the iphone, he stated:
There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.
Will the iPhone get a significant piece of the market? My guess is no; the iPhone will not get significant market share. The cost of the device is a major factor preventing explosive marketshare growth. The Moto Q (and similar devices) are 100 dollars or so, and offer the same sort of features (minus the apple-y niceness). I also wonder if the iPhone will be classed into a younger generation similar to that of the Danger Sidekick. It is so-called the Hilton rule. If Paris Hilton uses a given piece of technology, then that piece of technology can not be used by anyone older than 24 unless it is an emergency or no one is around. Violating this rule can be catastrophic on your ego as well as be very scary to one’s children, nephews, and/or nieces.
The second part of Ballmer’s statement is somewhat obvious — every company would prefer a market position of 60%, or 70%, or 80%. Ballmer’s product offering (Windows Mobile) doesn’t have this marketshare yet. Symbian is in the clear, but declining lead, with ~60-70% of smartphone market. There have been a bunch of predictions that Windows Mobile will overtake Symbian, but that has not happened yet. I am hoping that linux will trump them all, but in the end, if there isn’t a change in the market place, the operators are still going to control all of this anyway.
Doug
May 1, 2007 at 9:16 am
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May 1, 2007 at 9:38 am
I don’t know that I agree with that. People didn’t think the iPod would sell well at $400, and now it’s the market leader. With the iPhone, I don’t think people are going to be comparing it to the Moto Q. They’ll be comparing it to the iPod, and thinking “hey, for another $200 I can get a phone.”
May 1, 2007 at 10:17 am
I agree with Tex. People will buy the iPhone because they can have a very nice iPod with features you can’t get in a regular iPod plus a good, WiFi-enabled phone, all in one package. And they’ll buy it because of the Apple-y goodness.
May 1, 2007 at 8:33 pm
Symbian the clear leader? You must be in Europe - Symbian is practically irrelevant here in the US. Windows Mobile, PalmOS, and Blackberry are all well ahead of Symbian here. Checking the websites of the two largest wireless carriers here, it looks like one has a single Symbian device, and the other doesn’t have any Symbian devices at all.
BTW, if you didn’t hear, later this year Palm will be releasing devices based on a new Linux-based PalmOS.
May 2, 2007 at 6:10 am
Nokia fanboys will blow Jobs’ schlong!
May 2, 2007 at 6:13 am
“Nokia fanboys will blow Jobs’ schlong!” I wonder if all debates about the Iphone degrade into this statement… lol
We will see.
May 2, 2007 at 12:15 pm
There is nothing new here. Jobs completely agrees with Balmer. Look about 3/4 of the way down the page on http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/the-apple-iphone/
Apple is shooting for 1% marketshare in the next year (10 million units).
There is so much fragementation in the so called “cell phone market” that to expect domination or sizable impact would seem foolish.
The iphone is targeted at advanced devices end of the market which makes up 5-10% of the overall number of cellphones sold each year.
It will likey be another couple of years before advanced devices can prove they are worth the cost in terms of both initial cost, but also monthly operational cost… Think about how much it would cost to provide a family of 4 with iphones, phone service, and unlimited data plans that would allow reasonable access to mobile web content. Anyone have $200 a month? Compare that to the $24 a month that you pay for that same family of 4 to use the web from home over a DSL or cable connection.
A lot has to come into play before advanced devices get on the hockey stick growth path. The devices need to get better (the iphone is a great step toward one better solution), The amount and variety and “findability” of web content usable on mobile devices needs to get better (good stuff starting to happen there in the last year), and the cost needs to come down dramatically.
May 4, 2007 at 4:23 am
do somebody knows when we get iphone in europe?